Biggest trends

Confidence returning to the sector

The kiwifruit sector is regaining confidence, fueled by record exports and recovering Orchard Gate Returns (OGR). Investor interest is strong, with ongoing greenfield developments and license releases. The latest Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit license offers new opportunities, reflecting demand for high-performing orchards. International markets remain strong, ensuring long-term growth, while buyers prioritize resilient, established orchards.

Environmental considerations becoming central

Environmental factors are increasingly shaping investment decisions in the kiwifruit sector. Buyers are paying closer attention to climate adaptation measures such as orchard layout improvements to mitigate hail, frost, and flooding risks. Additionally, clarity around the use of agricultural sprays has alleviated some concerns, helping to stabilize confidence. Water access remains a critical determinant of orchard value, with longterm water rights significantly influencing pricing and investment appeal.

Labour and supply chain pressures impacting growth

The national kiwifruit industry continues to grapple with supply chain and labour constraints. While recent expansions in the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme have eased immediate workforce shortages, long-term challenges persist. Pressure on packhouse capacity, chilled storage, and logistics infrastructure is driving investment in automation and operational efficiencies. As production scales up, strategic innovation will be essential to maintaining sector momentum.

Outlook for the next 12 months

Premium orchards leading market activity

Buyers are prioritising high-quality orchards with superior infrastructure and proven productivity. Sector expansion has led to development in less traditional growing areas, but demand is consolidating around established regions with strong climatic resilience. The flight to quality is expected to define market activity, with well-located orchards commanding premium prices while lower-tier properties may face prolonged sale periods.

Capacity constraints driving operational change

As the national kiwifruit crop matures, processing and storage infrastructure will continue to be tested. Labour shortages, packhouse throughput limitations, and logistical challenges will push the industry towards greater reliance on automation and efficiency improvements. Addressing these constraints will be crucial to sustaining confidence and ensuring the sector can accommodate increasing production volumes.

Stabilisation of Labour Costs

Recent expansions in the RSE scheme have helped balance labour supply with demand, easing immediate wage pressures. However, ongoing expansion in the kiwifruit sector will require continuous workforce growth. Maintaining a sustainable labour pipeline will be essential to supporting industry scalability without driving up costs.